This is likely my last update on this system. It’s bad enough that much media is covering the system very well, and it’s close enough to landfall that the path is not likely to change much at this point, nor is the strenth, and my point with these updates is to try and provide information that I don’t think is available from many common sources.
The image above is the NRL/MRY plot. The nice thing about it is that it helps visualize the forecast wind speeds in each quadrant of the system. The outer ring is sustained TS-force (35mph) wind; the middle ring is sustained Gale-force (50mph) wind; the inner ring is sustained Hurricane-force (75mph) wind.
As you can see, sustained tropical storm force winds will affect all of the Florida peninsula as well as part of the eastern Panhandle and parts of SE Georgia. Sustained gale force winds will affect a large part of the peninsula generally around the I-4 corridor. And sustained hurricane force winds will affect some swath as well, with the exact part definitely up to wobbles and shifting.
As mentioned previously, storm surge will be a major issue for the entire western coast of Florida, but an issue for all of Florida except the panhandle; but extending up the coast of Georgia as well.
Hurricane Milton is in the process of becoming a very sheared hurricane, transitioning to post-tropics/extra-tropical, but this will take time, and unfortunately does not mean a decrease in strength; on the contrary, this means actually more energy in the system than it would otherwise have.
This will take the effects farther inland than they would normally go.
Rain will be a big problem for some areas generally around the I-4 corridor. The darkest red that is on land represents a forecast of 12"-16". (The darker red in the Gulf is 16"-20")
![[Image of WPC Flash Flooding/Excessive Rainfall Outlook]](https://ieh.one/uploads/default/original/1X/e0ff0ea932083acf491ecefe75032e3efaade4a0.gif)
Finally, I thought it was worth posting the entire Forecast Discussion:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 092056
TCDAT4
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
WSR-88D radar images from Tampa and Key West show that Milton is a sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of the center, and the eye open on the south side. This structure was confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission, where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest. The plane reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb. Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt. The highest Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and 105 kt.
Milton’s recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at about 15 kt. Track model guidance continues to insist that the hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this evening. Milton’s center is then expected to cross central Florida and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic.
Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this evening. Milton has grown in size today, particularly in the extent of 34- and 50-kt winds to the northwest of the center, and the northern eyewall appears most severe at the moment due to southwesterly shear. As a result, significant wind impacts are likely to occur north of the center, as well as to the south, regardless of the exact intensity at landfall. There will likely bea noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm.
Earlier scatterometer data suggested that Milton is already beginning to interact with a frontal boundary, and global model guidance suggests that the cyclone will become extratropical in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic. This is reflected in the new NHC forecast.
Key Messages:
- A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will rise rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as the center makes landfall.
- Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an interior room, away from windows, as the core of the hurricane moves across the central Florida Peninsula.
- The risk of strong tornadoes will continue into the evening hours cross the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula. Be prepared to take immediate shelter in an interior room if a Tornado warning is issued for your area.
- Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 26.9N 83.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 28.0N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH…INLAND
24H 10/1800Z 28.9N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH…OVER WATER
36H 11/0600Z 29.2N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1800Z 29.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0600Z 29.4N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z 29.9N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z 31.2N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1800Z 33.1N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Berg