Milton has strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane as of Sunday afternoon. The environment is extremely favorable for rapid strengthening into a Major Hurricane of Category 3 or possibly 4 over the next 24 hours.
The NHC is calling for Milton to reach Category 3, while Dr. Levi Cohen expresses that it might well be Category 4. Notably, the SHIPS does have multiple models reaching Category 5, so this seems to be possible, if less likely:
Milton ended up more to the south today that anticipated, necessitating tropical storm warnings for the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula. The impact to the forecast track as shown by the spaghetti models shows more uncertainty today:
The relative good news is that all the models call for some weakening from the peak strength before landfall. The bad news is that there will be so much energy in the system that this is likely to result in two possible scenarios, neither of which is all that wonderful.
First, Milton could weaken less, stay more structurally sound, and retain a strong closed eyewall. This would keep the affected area smaller, but bring more wind and even more storm surge to key areas.
Second, Milton could weaken more, lose a closed eyewall. But this, alas, would spread the wind and surge over a wider area, impacting more people.
The GFS is currently the northernmost model, and keeps Milton stronger. Here’s what it looks like for this scenario:
This would be devastating for much of the western coast of Florida, with effects felt from southwest Florida all the way into the Panhandle, and storm surge from Key West up to the Big Bend, although centered in the middle coast, around Tampa, Naples, etc.
And unfortunately, this may well bring wind and water all through the I-4 corridor. Orlando would not have a very fun time.
As Milton exits into the Atlantic, there will also be wind and water coming ashore especially in north Florida, with Jacksonville and Daytona getting hit.
Interestingly, the latest EURO weakens Milton drastically after much less strengthening:
While this would be a great scenario, relatively speaking, with all the other models forcasting such strong strengthening, I wouldn’t put too much hope in this scenario. At least not yet.
Rain will definitely be an issue with this system, likely bringing a foot of rain to some areas:
There is a high risk of flash flooding for much of the milddle and northern peninsula Florida, but also for southeast Florida:
The main takeaways for today:
- There is large uncertainty for the exact track, which will mean a great difference in how lucky different folks are for wind
- There is a large uncertainty for the strength at landfall. While Milton should be weakening, less weakning means stronger impacts over a moderate area vs. more weakening means dangerous effects over a larger area
- Do not focus on the exact track. This system is most likely to have a lot of energy that will impact much of the west coast of Florida, a large swatch inland, and to a lesser degree much of the eastern coast of Florida. Effects are possible into the Panhandle, although I am not too worried about the Panhandle as it’s likely to be moderate wind and not much in the way of water.
As always, keep an eye out for the Tropical Tidbits update which will likely be posted in a couple of hours, I’d imagine: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
I’ve also been made aware of another good resource - a quicker read than watching Tropical Tidbits. A bit less discussion in depth, but seems to me to feature good writeups of what to expect: https://theeyewall.com/
But don’t forget to read the NHC Forecast Discussion. Look for the latest one, but the latest one as of my posting is here: Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Discussion?