What a difference a day makes. This is the unfortunate statement that occasionally happens with hurricanes, and certainly applies with Milton. We were expecting rapid intensification, and boy howdy did Milton exceed expectations.
The NHC is now forecasting that Hurricane Milton will reach Category 5 strength this afternoon, unfortunately.
Here’s the SHIPS forecast model for intensity:
So while the models show a peak intensity mostly clustered around Cat 4-5, the NHC is forecasting Cat 5. Which unfortunately means a Category 4 landfall seems likely at this time, and landfall as at least a Cateory 3 seems incredibly likely at this time.
Unfortunately, with Milton picking up so much energy, even if there is intrusion of dry air and increased shear as it reaches landfall, it will just mean a smaller intense storm or a larger but still pretty intense storm.
While water is always the main story, wind will absolutely be an issue with this system for those unfortunate enough to be close to the eyewall.
The spaghetti has moved a bit south, and is beginning to cluster up a bit more. Most models now show a landfall around Tampa, give or take. There are a lot of people in the path of the eyewall, and the exact landfall location is not so important:
I think that while wind is going to be a major problem for those near the eyewall, by far the story of this system is the storm surge, which will be very high over much of the west coast of Florida:
If you are in an evacuation zone and told to evacuate, do NOT play around with this. Water is deadly. Water is what caused deaths with Helene, not so much wind.
Know your zone and get out if told to do so.
Although wind is the lesser of the two issues, it will be a problem for many. Here’s the current EURO:
As unpleasant as that it, the GFS has an even more bleak view:
Also, the GFS takes the system in more diagonally, meaning more time making landfall and even more widely spread effects.
I don’t often post ground-level wind models because while the 850mb models above tend to overstate the wind speeds experienced inland and I try to remind everyone of that, the ground-level models tend to understate the wind, as far as I can tell.
But even those are unpleasant.
Here’s the GFS:
Here’s the HWRF ground-level:
And here is the HWRF 850mb:
So basically, this is going to be a nasty experience for a lot of people.
If you have not made preparations, you are running out of time to do so. If you are in the path of storm surge, consider evacuation. If you stay, and water begins to rise, make sure you do not cut off escape. Be careful about going to upper floors or an attic where if water continues to rise, you might become trapped.
I haven’t posted the NRL/MRY model in a long time because it can be a bit hard to read, but one of the things I like about it is that it shows the forecast wind field for each quadrant, with Tropical Storm force, Gale Force, and Hurrican Force winds:
Rain will be an issues, but not the most important issue:
Milton is a large hurricane and the impacts will be felt well away from the eyewall.
This is, unfortunately, a major hurricane and it will be a major event.
I will have more information about the expected impacts to the eastern coast of Florida with the next update.