The NHC is calling for steady intensification of this system over the next two days or so as it heads toward the peninsula of Florida. At this time, the spaghetti is pretty clustered around generally Tampa, give or take:
Tampa and Orlando, along with the rest of the peninsula, should monitor this system. The effects will be felt from Key West all the way up to the Big Bend.
The SHIPS model does seem to support Cat 3, although Cat 4 is currently quite possible:
It is, of course, quite possible that this will change with time. But preparing now for a major Category 3 system is important.
Here’s the current EURO take, just to give you an idea of the possibility:
And here’s the current GFS:
That is the wind field, with red being gale-force (50mph sustained) wind, purple being hurricane-force (75mph sustained) wind.
Rain will certainly be nothing to scoff at, although it’s not forecast to be nearly as bad as Helene:
Milton is most definitely a system to watch over the next few days, and I will be posting frequent updates as the forecast is updated.
Key messages from the NHC:
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Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
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There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast.
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Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.
Critically important - Dr. Levi Cohen has an update today:
