PTC 18 has strengthened into TS Rafael and is making its way to Cuba.
The spag right now is not the most diverging I’ve ever seen, but it is rather amusingly diverging.
The main reason I’m putting in another update on this system is that I keep hearing news trying to get the Gulf states into a panic over this system, and there’s just no reason for that nonsense.
This is the first reason why. The forecast track after the storm crosses Cuba is very divergent, and it’s not even certain the system will survive to make landfall. Where it does is currently Louisiana to the panhandle. But wait, there’s more:
The intensity forecast shows TS Rafael is likely to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane. However, it is forecast to lose strength over Cuba and weaken to a tropical storm or depression in the Gulf.
So we don’t know where it’s going to go yet, but it’s not likely to pose a large problem for wherever that is.
The EURO basically takes the system to here around Thursday, then due west as it fizzles out.
Ending up off the coast of Texas as a remnant low with no significant winds.
The GFS sees a hurricane north of Cuba
But by the time it reachs the AL/FL coast, it’s a tropical storm weakening to a tropical depression.
We’re too far out for me to talk about rain chances from Rafael, but meanwhile, there is another area of interest. Zero chance for formation across the next three days, 20% over the next seven days.
So again, this update is to try and counter the hype and worry that some are trying to foment.
There’s always a tiny chance things could change, but this is the best information we have at present: Not a worry to the US. Or at least not yet.
Posted to Imgur here: https://imgur.com/gallery/ts-rafael-previously-ptc-18-update-8an8JvX